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Singapore’s Third National Climate Change Study (V3) presents the world's highest resolution climate projections for Southeast Asia based on the IPCC 6^th Assessment Report

Singapore, 05 January 2024 – The Centre for Climate Research Singapore (CCRS), under the Meteorological Service Singapore, has released the findings of the Third National Climate Change Study (V3[1]) today. V3 projects higher temperatures, more wet and dry extremes, and accelerating increase in mean sea levels for Singapore and Southeast Asia by the end of the century. This is consistent with the findings of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 6^th Assessment Report (AR6)[2].

2          V3 updates Singapore's national climate change projections from the previous study (V2) released by CCRS in 2015. Based on a carefully selected set of global climate models from IPCC AR6, V3 downscales[3] the projections to higher resolutions of 8km over Southeast Asia and 2km over Singapore using CCRS’ customised Regional Climate Model. Compared to V2, the V3 projections incorporate improved representations and a wider range of physical processes in the global climate system, enabling more accurate simulation of our regional climate on a finer scale.

3          V3 uses three projected global socio-economic pathways affecting greenhouse gas emission levels to explore the possible range of climate outcomes for Singapore and the surrounding region by end century. These correspond to the shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs)[4] used in the IPCC AR6. The low emissions scenario (SSP1-2.6) reflects a shift to sustainable development pathways with net zero targets achieved after 2050 while the high emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5) is driven by energy intensive, fossil fuel-based development. The medium emissions scenario (SSP2-4.5) takes a middle-of-the-road pathway where historical patterns of development continue throughout this century.

Very Hot Days and Warm Nights the New Normal by End Century

4          Consistent with earlier projections, Singapore is expected to become warmer, with annual mean temperatures rising between 0.6 and 5 degrees Celsius by end century. Singapore’s annual mean temperatures, which increased at a rate of 0.24 degrees Celsius per decade in the past 40 years, is projected to rise to 0.55 degrees Celsius per decade by end century under the high emissions scenario.

5          Very hot days will become more frequent. Singapore experienced daily maximum temperatures exceeding 35 degrees Celsius[5] 21.4 days per year on average in the last 40 years. By end century, we will see between 41 and 351 days per year on average of such high daily maximum temperatures. More warm nights where temperatures exceed 26.3 degrees Celsius are also projected. From an average of 76 nights per year in the last 40 years, Singapore could experience such warm nights most nights in the year by end century.

Rainfall Extremes to Intensify, Dry Periods to Get Drier

6          Singapore’s rainfall is highly variable at seasonal time scales. By the end of century, total rainfall during the southwest monsoon dry season of June-through-August could fall significantly below the historical low of 314 mm (recorded in 1997) around once every three years. For the northeast monsoon wet season of November-through-January, the corresponding seasonal total rainfall is projected to exceed the historical high of 1507 mm (recorded in 2006) occasionally.

7          Extreme daily rainfall[6] is projected to increase across all seasons, with increases ranging from around 6 to 92 per cent in the inter-monsoon months of April and May. On the other hand, dry spells[7] could be more frequent and last longer, with Singapore experiencing on average one dry spell every 10 to 60 months by end of century.

Mean Sea Level to Rise

8          The mean sea level around Singapore is projected to rise by 0.23m to 1.15m by end century, and by up to around 2m by 2150 under the high emissions scenario. This increase from the previous V2 projections (around 1m by end century) is primarily due to a better understanding of the contribution of the melting of the Antarctic ice sheets to global sea levels.

Staying Resilient in The Face of Climate Change

9          Singapore's future climate depends on the world's shared socio-economic pathways. All countries will have to act collectively to fulfil their net zero commitments. Singapore is doing our part, with the Singapore Green Plan. We are committed to reach net-zero carbon by 2050.

10        In addition, the Government takes a proactive approach not just in mitigation, but also in adaptation planning to ensure that we are prepared for the impacts of climate change. The Government will take into account the range of possible climate outcomes, including the high emissions pathway, in Singapore’s adaptation plans to ensure that we remain climate resilient. Details of the Government’s current climate adaptation efforts can be found in Annex B.

11        MSS will also be sharing the V3 data with ASEAN Member States at a later stage. In addition, MSS will be collaborating with international entities and the wider scientific community to undertake joint research using V3 data.

12        To deepen our understanding of the impacts of climate change, NEA today also launched the second grant call under the Climate Impacts Science Research (CISR) Programme[8] for new research proposals on food security, impacts on human health, water resources, sea level rise and impacts on maritime infrastructure and the transport sector. In December last year, eight projects were awarded under the Programme’s first grant call. These projects will make use of V3 results to look into areas like the impact of climate change on vector-borne diseases in Singapore, changes in our tropical forest landscape, among others.

13        Government action alone will not be sufficient. Everyone – individuals, communities, and corporates – has a role to play to promote sustainability and mitigate climate change. Members of the public seeking to learn how to fight climate change may visit: www.mse.gov.sg/policies/climate-change/climategamechanger.

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ANNEX A

Key Findings from V3 for Three Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs)

[9] The definition of ‘very hot days’ and ‘warm nights’ is based on the 99th percentile and 90th percentile of daily maximum temperature and daily minimum temperature, respectively, over the 30-year (1991-2020) climatological period.

ANNEX B

Riding the Climate Wave: How Singapore Stays Ahead in Adaptation

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