 It was a bright, clear morning on Sunday, 26 December 2004. The sunbathing tourists on Maikhao beach in Phuket received a tsunami warning as the tide rushed out along the seabed – and it came from an observant ten-year-old British girl, Tilly Smith, who remembered a geography lesson.
They must still be counting their blessings as part of just a small clutch of people who had had any warning at all.
In the hours that followed the massive undersea earthquake off the north coast of Sumatra, which unleashed the word "tsunami" into the world's vocabulary in the worst possible way, a few people did get warnings, in the form of a fax. The only problem was they didn't know what to do with the information. Or whom to ring. Or whether there was even a system to activate. Some didn't have the expertise to confirm the true consequences of that earthquake.
The devastation the earthquake wreaked on the state nearest – Aceh – was so severe that there appeared to be few left to convey the news. It was only days later that the world had a visual image of its plight. Intrepid but visibly shaken broadcast reporters had managed to reach the stricken area, picking their way soberly through the rubble amid an eerie silence.
The tsunami, which barrelled into high-profile tourist areas, did much worse. Media images of bloated corpses, a bleak, barren landscape, and grief-stricken, desperate faces will be seared into the collective memory for years to come.
Even before the water had receded, the 220,000 bodies buried, or the aid distributed, the question burning on everyone's lips was,
why was there no warning to such a devastating event? What happened?
The world had been caught unawares, with catastrophic results.
When natural disasters hit, devastation follows, driving home the scale and impact of nature's blowing rage. According to one estimate, during the 10-year period from 1992 to 2001, natural disasters resulted in more than 620,000 deaths, disrupted the lives of nearly two billion people, and cost the world economy some $466 billion.
There is no way of preventing natural disasters, but mitigating their effects relies heavily on early warning and sound emergency preparation.
Recognising it had the capacity and expertise to contribute towards this, the Meteorological Services Division (MSD) of NEA initiated and began developing an early warning system for tsunamis two years ago.
As most tsunamis are caused by earthquakes, an effective seismic monitoring network is essential for a tsunami early warning system. The seismic monitoring network in Singapore currently comprises four sensors located at Bukit Timah, Jurong West, Pulau Tekong and Toa Payoh. However, given the size of Singapore, additional seismic observation data from countries in the region would be needed to supplement the local observation data gathered. Though countries around the region had stations that could detect and analyse an earthquake, there was limited data-sharing between them until now.
With the first phase of the Tsunami Early Warning System network completed, real-time earthquake information can be exchanged with Malaysia, Indonesia and even Australia via the Internet. Access to the data from a much wider area will enable MSD to more promptly detect earthquakes in the region that could cause a tsunami. With this upgraded system, SMS alerts would be automatically sent to officers in the Division upon detection of an earthquake. The national system also constitutes part of the regional Indian Ocean Tsunami Warning System, led by the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC) of UNESCO.
"The benefit of such a system is that it cuts down on the time needed to assess a situation, enables us to alert the relevant parties earlier and gives everyone more time to respond," said NEA chairman Simon Tay at the opening of World Meteorological Day celebrations in March 2006 at the National Library.
What's next? Phase two of this project involves the installation of the three new seismic sensors and the upgrading of ageing components of Singapore's seismic network. With the completion of this phase, the seismic network will be enhanced to improve provision of real-time seismic data to support local and regional tsunami monitoring efforts.
The third and last phase involves the development and implementation of tsunami models to support operations of the 24/7 early warning centre in MSD. In all, Singaporeans can expect to have a national tsunami early warning system fully operational by end FY 2007.
Young Tilly Smith's warning saved at least 100 lives that day. Hopefully, the new system and procedures will mean that when the next big worst-case scenario hits, it will give many more the chance to save themselves. |
